The first quarter of this year is the first quarter after the implementation of the 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus package, so the macro data situation has attracted much attention. April 16, including the March CPI and PPI data and a quarter of GDP, including important data has been announced.
Data show that a quarter of the national economy to run a little warmer signs, but talk about the overall recovery is premature. Data released the day before, the State Council executive will study the deployment of the next stage of economic work mentioned, to strengthen the reserve policy research, good plans to effectively cope with the new changes in the economic situation. However, the meeting did not expect the community to heat up the new economic stimulus plan to disclose any substance, but stressed the need to seriously implement the investment policy measures, pay close attention to the introduction of supporting policies and detailed policies. Therefore, the current textile industry, the adjustment of the industry to adjust the implementation of the revitalization plan is clearly expected than the new economic stimulus plan came more realistic.
A quarter of economic data mixed New economic stimulus plan will take some time
Li Xiaochao, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said in the first quarter of economic data, the central authorities to further expand domestic demand and maintain a stable and rapid growth of the national economy stimulus package, the macroeconomic performance of a positive change in performance better than expected. However, the impact of the international financial crisis, a quarter of a larger decline in export demand, resulting in decreased business efficiency, reduced revenue, increased employment difficulties, the economy there is a large downward pressure.
In summary, the first quarter of the economic indicators year on year data is not "good-looking", but the 3-month chain data shows a marked increase in economic indicators. For example, the consumer price (CPI) fell 0.6%, industrial producer price (PPI) fell 4.6%, but the chain fell narrower.
Another example, a quarter of gross domestic product (GDP) 6.5745 trillion yuan, calculated at comparable prices, an increase of 6.1%, an increase over the same period last year dropped 4.5 percentage points. Among them, industrial production growth stabilized, corporate profits overall decline. In the first quarter of the national scale industrial added value increased by 5.1%, an increase over the previous year dropped 11.3 percentage points.
Based on the current situation, some economic circles believe that it is necessary to introduce new economic stimulus package. They believe that the new round of economic stimulus package will favor the livelihood and consumption, medicine, agriculture, new energy, real estate, banking, household appliances, automobiles, textiles, electronic information nine plates may benefit. But at the same time some analysts believe that, due to the intensity of China's policy is not small, and some supporting policies and detailed policies have not yet introduced, the policy effect is not fully apparent, it should continue to observe for some time. To wait until April and May after the data out, according to the economic operation of the new situation, and then there is no need to re-judge the New Deal.
Zhang Yongjun, a researcher in the Department of Economic Forecasting of the State Information Center, said that in the near future there was no need for new economic stimulus policies in China. The data in the first quarter showed that China's investment and consumption growth rates were already high, and investment and consumption policies were already strong. Although the performance of the import and export is not satisfactory, but this aspect of our country has also introduced a continuous support policy, further adjustment of the smaller space.
In this regard, the China Textile Economic Research Center, Sun Huaibin, said in an exclusive interview, the first round of 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus plan focused mainly on investment-led, such as speeding up infrastructure construction and post-disaster reconstruction, which for the textile industry directly pull Power is relatively weak. If there is a focus on consumption of the new economic stimulus package, then the textile of this life, the consumer goods industry will be more rapid and direct pull.
As we all know, pulling the economic growth, consumption, investment and exports of this "troika" are very important, from the current situation, export market we can not reach, so the policy to increase investment and consumption stimulus, will reflect a complete Economic stimulus ideas. According to the reporter observed, in February has been introduced, the full text of the recently announced to the community, "Textile Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan" in the industry consumption, investment and export issues related to discussion, the actual demand from the textile industry, the distance seems closer .
The textile industry started to run basically stable situation is grim showing three outstanding problems
In the first quarter, major economic indicators such as production, efficiency, exports, investment and employment of the textile industry continued to decline, but the data of the chain rebounded. General Administration of Customs data released on April 10, 2009 1 to 3 months of China's textile and apparel exports totaled $ 34.062 billion, down 9.03%, compared with the previous two months 14.54% decline compared to a modest increase in the chain of up to 82.23%. Polypropylene yarn
Sun Huaibin told reporters that a quarter of the industry operation of the China Textile Industry Association confirmed the results of the beginning of the survey, a series of policies and measures to stimulate the industry began to stabilize the operation, but the seriousness of the continuation of the main performance of the following three outstanding issues:
First, the number of enterprises above designated size has increased, but the main product output to further shrink, the output growth rate dropped significantly. According to the National Bureau of Statistics data, the first two months of this year, chemical fiber and yarn production, respectively, year on year 3.84% and 5.91% of the small increase, while cloth, printing and dyeing, clothing and other products were down 5.02%, 1.02% and 6.61%. It is understood that the first two months of this year, the textile industry to increase the size of more than 50,000 enterprises, while the output and output value has not gone up situation, the two contrast, shrinking market demand and other factors led to the phenomenon of production is evident. Polypropylene yarn
Second, exports continue to decline. According to the China Textile Industry Association data, 1 to 2 months of China's textile and apparel exports to Europe, the United States, Japan fell by 9%, on other countries and regions is a sharp decline of 20%. Thus, the financial crisis has more and more deeply spread to emerging markets, China's textile and garment exports a major problem. In addition, the first quarter of this year, textile exports since the first quarter of negative growth since last year, reflecting the current export situation is extremely serious industry.
Third, further deterioration in business efficiency, industry employment situation is grim. From January to February, profits of enterprises above designated size decreased by 11% (profit of textile and garment industry increased by 15.6%). Profits of major industries declined. Enterprises started to textile employment situation is more severe, by the end of February the number of enterprise employment than the end of November last year to reduce the 450,000 people. Polypropylene yarn
In addition, the industry continued to decline in investment in fixed assets, 1 to 2 months of planned investment in a negative growth of 6%, showing lack of confidence in business investment, capital, a certain difficult situation. Polypropylene yarn
Sun Huaibin analysis, resulting in the above problems are the main reasons: the international financial crisis, deepening the impact of further shrinking demand, increased market competition. In addition, he pointed out that domestic demand is also slowing down trend, this year 1 to 2 months, the domestic textile and apparel sales increased 6%, down 14 percentage points year on year, but compared to exports, domestic market is an important support for the stability of the industry. 1 to 2 months, China's textile and apparel domestic share of 77% from the end of last year rose to 80%.
Policies to stimulate the industry to stabilize the enterprise to pick up confidence still positive adjustment
Despite the grim situation facing the industry, but companies still have to strengthen their confidence, and actively adjust, Lianhaoneigong. Sun Huaibin said that from the current situation, there are still favorable factors to promote the industry to stabilize warmer. First, the central expansion of domestic demand and maintain a stable and rapid growth of the national economy package of macroeconomic stimulus and the role of lead can not be discounted, and second, "Textile Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan" introduced on the industry to boost confidence and adjust the upgrade will play Important role. He pointed out that from April 1 to start the implementation of the 16% export tax rebate rate to curb the decline in exports will play a role, while the textile technology projects in the credit and funding support for the pulling effect will be particularly evident. Therefore, he believes that through the implementation of policies and their own efforts, the industry should have confidence to pick up. Polypropylene yarn
April 15, the State Council executive meeting in the analysis of the first quarter of the economic situation, the deployment of the next stage of economic work stressed the need to firmly implement the proactive fiscal policy and a moderately easy monetary policy, the full implementation of the crisis package . Which focus on: the expansion of consumption, especially consumption. Stable foreign trade import and export, make full use of foreign trade development funds and credit and other means to increase exports of high-tech products and labor-intensive products. Accelerate the adjustment and revitalization of key industries, pay close attention to the introduction of key industries to adjust and revitalize the planning supporting the implementation of the program, as soon as possible new central investment in the "key industries to revitalize and technological transformation" special funds. Continue to do a good job of financial support for economic development work, so that funds truly support the real economy to run, increase support for loans to SMEs and so on. These are closely related with the textile industry is a key issue, but also has been involved in the macro-level. The meeting stressed the need to pay close attention to promoting the first two batches of investment projects have been issued and immediately issued the third batch of central investment projects. As a result, the Government seriously implement the policy measures to expand investment, pay close attention to the introduction of supporting policies and detailed policy ideas more obvious.